Nvidia plummeted 10%, the fuse came from AMD

Several semiconductor stocks are overvalued.

On Friday, NVIDIA's stock price plummeted by 10%, falling over 20% from its historical high, with the selling pressure triggered by Super Micro Computer's unusual failure to pre-announce its financial results.

NVIDIA did not release any announcements on Friday that could have led to the stock price crash, but the world's third-largest server manufacturer, Super Micro Computer, announced on Friday that it would release its third-quarter financial results on April 30, breaking the recent pattern of providing preliminary performance.

In recent quarters, including the same period last year, Super Micro Computer pre-announced strong sales and profits. It raised its sales and profit expectations 11 days before announcing its financial data for the second quarter in January.

Wells Fargo Securities wrote that Super Micro Computer's failure to provide a positive pre-announcement and important artificial intelligence data is considered a negative signal.

Super Micro Computer has a close relationship with NVIDIA, and its dynamics are seen by the market as an important indicator of NVIDIA's and the AI market's development. Super Micro Computer's move on Friday undoubtedly caused market panic.

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Super Micro Computer's stock price plummeted by 23.14% to $713.65 per share, and NVIDIA's stock price subsequently plummeted by 10.00% to $762.00 per share, marking the worst day since March 2020.Other artificial intelligence (AI) concept stocks also suffered, with NVIDIA's competitor AMD plunging 5.4% to $146.64 per share, and Arm's stock price falling 16.9% to $87.19 per share. The global wafer foundry leader TSMC dipped 3.46%.

Astera Labs, a pioneer in smart system connectivity solutions that has recently gone public, saw its stock price plummet 9.1% to $64.49 per share.

Broadcom and Marvell's stock prices fell by 4.3% and 4.8%, respectively.

Micron Technology's stock price dropped 4.6% to $106.77 per share, and Microsoft declined by 1.3% to $399.22 per share.

Recently, semiconductor stocks have been frequently issuing warnings through their financial reports, and the market seems more inclined to take profits before other AI concept stocks release their financial statements.

Semiconductor equipment manufacturer ASML reported disappointing financial results, with sales falling more than investors expected, mainly due to a decline in demand for advanced chip manufacturing equipment.

TSMC is optimistic that its second-quarter revenue could rise by 6%, with a sequential increase in the second half of the year. However, TSMC admits that the overall semiconductor market (excluding memory) will have a more gentle and gradual recovery, revising down its outlook for the full-year semiconductor market (excluding memory), expecting an annual increase of about 10%.

AMD, which broke the recent pattern of providing preliminary performance, also sent a signal for investors to sell. Capital is massively withdrawing from the sectors leading the bull market, and chip stocks are facing increasing pressure.

The S&P 500 has had six consecutive days of losses, marking the worst week since March 2023.U.S. stocks experienced a Black Friday. The S&P 500 closed down 0.88%, breaking below the 5,000-point mark, marking the sixth consecutive trading day of losses, a first since October 2022.

The Nasdaq Composite plummeted 2.05% on Friday, also marking six straight days of declines, setting the longest losing streak in over a year. However, boosted by American Express, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed in the green with a gain of 211.02 points.

Capital is massively exiting sectors that have led the bull market. Chip stocks are also facing increasing pressure, with NVIDIA plunging over 10%, wiping out approximately $210 billion in market value, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) plummeting over 23%, leading to a significant decline in artificial intelligence-related technology stocks. Netflix's stock price plummeted over 9% due to its plan to stop reporting quarterly subscriber data.

Due to growing concerns about inflation and the path of monetary policy, the S&P 500 ended the week down over 3%, marking the worst weekly performance since March 2023, and also the index's third consecutive week of decline. The Nasdaq fell 5.5% for the week, its fourth consecutive week of decline, the longest streak since December 2022, but the Dow Jones managed to close the week up by 0.01%.

The ongoing uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, with Fed officials conveying a more hawkish stance this week, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee believes that inflation progress has stalled, and it is reasonable to wait before cutting rates. He is the fourth official this week to express a stance of not being in a hurry to raise rates, indicating that the long-awaited first rate cut may still be months away.

The 10 most overvalued stocks in the S&P 500 Index, with semiconductors dominating

CNBC Pro has sifted through the S&P 500 Index using FactSet data to identify the stocks with the highest valuation premiums, that is, stocks with current price-to-earnings ratios higher than their average over the past five years. These stocks are considered overvalued, meaning their current prices do not match their price-to-earnings ratios.

According to this screening, Super Micro Computer and other artificial intelligence stocks, such as semiconductor manufacturing companies Broadcom and Microchip Technology, are considered overvalued.

Semiconductor companies have experienced rapid growth over the past year, driven by investors' enthusiasm for generative AI. However, due to concerns about over-growth, signs of a slowdown in this cyclical industry have emerged in the second quarter.Super Micro Computer's trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 32.9, which is 173% higher than its 5-year average P/E ratio of 12.1. The hardware manufacturer saw its stock rise by 10.6% on Tuesday this week, following Loop Capital's increase of its target price from $900 to $1,500, citing a strengthened confidence in the generative AI server industry and the belief that Super Micro Computer will gradually become a leader in complexity and scale.

The stock has fallen by over 6% this quarter, but it has still surged by 230% year-to-date.

Microchip Technology's current price-to-earnings ratio is 73% higher than its 5-year average of 15.8 times, while Broadcom's is 58% higher. Microchip has seen a decline of over 6% this year, whereas Broadcom has risen by 13%.

Eli Lilly is another overvalued company, with its P/E ratio being 71% higher than its 5-year average. The pharmaceutical company has risen by 28% year-to-date and has been a favorite among investors in the weight loss drug market. The demand for the company's obesity treatment drug Zepbound and its type 2 diabetes drug Mounjaro has remained robust. A study released on Wednesday (17th) highlighted the prospects of Zepbound for treating sleep apnea, expanding the potential healthcare scope of Eli Lilly's drugs.

Other high-priced stocks on the list include Freeport McMoRan, Bristol-Myers Squibb, and Tyson Foods.

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